TLDR: Markets ignore a major oil shock and soar on AI. Our take: active neutrality on equities, overweight on metals and Euro Investment Grade credit, profit-taking on technology—and increased vigilance on the debt now financing the AI boom.
Our one-page take
BNP Paribas Wealth Management’s June 2026 strategic guidance note describes a paradox we share: nearly 14% of global oil production has been interrupted since early March, yet the MSCI All Country World index has risen 6% over three months, including a 14% rebound from its late March low [1]. Where the note stops at observation, we add the missing piece to the puzzle: this cycle is increasingly debt-financed, and that’s where future yield and risk lie. Our role at Neumarz is not to relay a bank’s view—it’s to confront it with market facts and derive allocation decisions.
What we take away, from our perspective:
- AI drives indices, but concentration and leverage have never been higher—a bull market to monitor, not to endure.
- The Strait of Hormuz shock remains an underestimated stagflation risk: we remain Neutral on equities and strengthen convexity.
- Metals (copper, aluminum, gold) are the conviction most corroborated by third-party sources.
- The ECB/BoE vs. Fed divergence is moderately favorable to the Euro; Euro Investment Grade credit offers the best entry point.
- On tech and emerging markets, we are taking partial profits—discipline, not a bearish conviction.
AI boosts indices—but is now debt-financed
First-quarter earnings season was strong in the United States, driven by the AI investment boom [1]. The Nasdaq 100 has risen 21% year-to-date, and the semiconductor sector has gained 66% since the end of 2025. Earnings are following: S&P 500 2026 forecasts have been raised by 8.5%, for an expected EPS (earnings per share) growth of 16% [1].
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